Winning a Tournament According to Bradley-Terry Probability Model

  • Shuyang Gao The George Washington University
  • Hosam Mahmoud
DOI: https://doi.org/10.19139/soic-2310-5070-1490
Keywords: Bradley-Terry model;, Multivariate Gaussian law;, Combinatorial probability;, Quantitative analysis of tournaments;

Abstract

We analyze the chances of winning a tournament under the assumption that the probabilities of winning individual matches follow Bradley-Terry model [2]. We present an exact solution and show a few examples of its use. The examples are from California volleyball tournaments, the round of sixteen in the World Cup and the Champions League, the group stage of the Association of Tennis Professionals tournament, and the volleyball SuperLega in Italy. The computational complexity of the solution grows exponentially fastwith the number of teams and we seek approximations via multivariate Gaussian laws.

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Published
2023-01-07
How to Cite
Gao, S., & Mahmoud , H. (2023). Winning a Tournament According to Bradley-Terry Probability Model. Statistics, Optimization & Information Computing, 11(2), 332-344. https://doi.org/10.19139/soic-2310-5070-1490
Issue
Vol 11 No 2 (2023)
Section
Research Articles
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